RBA Cash Rate Survey Forecasts
In October 2022, portal finder.com.au invited me to join the panel of economists for their monthly RBA cash rate survey. My answers will be based on the forecasting analyses that I research and teach in my everyday work at the University of Melbourne. In the spirit of transparency, reproducibility, and sharing expertise, I am publishing my forecasts, and the survey answers on this website. I will keep expanding the data and models I use to produce the combined forecasts every month. Please, use the contact details if you want to share your insights, feedback, or suggestions with me.
The most up-to-date forecasts
Have a look at the forecasts generated in end of October 2024
My cash rate forecasts
The hydra plot below presents monthly cash rate series starting from January 2015 together with my forecasts from the subsequent months.
My answers
The tables below juxtaposes my answers to the survey question regarding the following month’s cash rate change with RBA’s decision.
2024
Starting in 2024 the Predicted change is reported as the difference between the value of cash rate and the mean pooled forecast. This value might not be exactly consistent with the reported Predicted decision as the latter is the interpretation of the former.
| Survey taken in: | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Jun | Aug | Sep | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predicted decision | HOLD | HOLD | HOLD | HOLD | HOLD | HOLD | HOLD | ||
| Predicted change | -0.06 | 0.04 | -0.03 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 | -0.01 | -0.02 | |
| RBA’s decision | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
2023
| Survey taken in: | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predicted decision | RAISE | RAISE | RAISE | RAISE | RAISE | RAISE | RAISE | HOLD | HOLD | HOLD | HOLD |
| Predicted change | +0.25 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| RBA’s decision | +0.25 | +0.25 | 0.00 | +0.25 | +0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.25 | 0.00 |
2022
| Survey taken in: | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predicted decision | RAISE | RAISE | |||||||||
| Predicted change | +0.5 | +0.25 | |||||||||
| RBA’s decision | +0.25 | +0.25 |
A disclaimer
The surveyed panel of economists at finder.com.au is heavily gender biased with only 15 percent of the panellists being women. This is a problem because non-representative expert panels are not objective and quite likely pushing the interest of a specific demographic group. Therefore, before accepting the invitation I urged the portal to invite more female economists to the panel and was ready to put down the invitation depending on the answer. Saranga who is organising the survey explained to me that they are inviting as many women as men and shared with me the list of folks that were invited with me. I concluded that the under-representation of women in the panel is not an effect of finder’s malpractices, but rather reflects the problem of economics as a field. We all share the responsibility to make the field representing the society more accurately by shifting the cultural and organisational practices. I accepted the invitation and do my best for the change to happen.