October 2025
Hi! Have a look at my forecasts prepared to answer the RBA cash rate survey by finder.com.au.
Cash rate forecasts
The figure below presents the monthly cash rate series starting from January 2010, with the forecasts reported from November 2025 to October 2026 as the forecast mean and the 68% forecasting intervals.
The table below makes the numerical values presented in the figure more accessible.
| monthly | lower | upper | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2025 | 3.51 | 3.42 | 3.62 |
| Dec 2025 | 3.50 | 3.34 | 3.67 |
| Jan 2026 | 3.47 | 3.25 | 3.70 |
| Feb 2026 | 3.41 | 3.13 | 3.71 |
| Mar 2026 | 3.36 | 3.01 | 3.73 |
| Apr 2026 | 3.34 | 2.92 | 3.79 |
| May 2026 | 3.29 | 2.81 | 3.80 |
| Jun 2026 | 3.26 | 2.73 | 3.84 |
| Jul 2026 | 3.23 | 2.64 | 3.87 |
| Aug 2026 | 3.20 | 2.55 | 3.89 |
| Sep 2026 | 3.17 | 2.48 | 3.93 |
| Oct 2026 | 3.16 | 2.41 | 3.96 |
Survey answers
Based on the forecasts above, and the analysis of forecasts from individual models, I formed the following survey answers:
When you think the RBA will change the cash rate?
| Oct 2025 | Dec 2025 | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2026 | July 2026 | Aug 2025 | Sep 2025 or beyond | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increase | |||||||||
| Hold | |||||||||
| Decrease | ✓ |
Why do you think this?
It’s definitely a possibility! That’s what market participants think. Different forces are pulling in opposite directions, and no one is 100% certain about the course of action. And that’s what my forecasts indicate: the bond yield curve models for the monthly data set on the CUT, but weekly data models and other specifications indicate a HOLD decision. The former usually forecasts more precisely, and therefore it’s a CUT. But I’m not 100% certain :) My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/