June 2026
Hi! Have a look at my forecasts prepared to answer the RBA cash rate survey by finder.com.au.
Cash rate forecasts
The figure below presents the monthly cash rate series starting from January 2010, with the forecasts for another year reported as the forecast mean and the 68% forecasting intervals.
The table below makes the numerical values presented in the figure more accessible.
| monthly | lower | upper | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | 4.46 | 4.37 | 4.56 |
| Aug 2026 | 4.56 | 4.40 | 4.72 |
| Sep 2026 | 4.64 | 4.42 | 4.87 |
| Oct 2026 | 4.67 | 4.39 | 4.97 |
| Nov 2026 | 4.71 | 4.36 | 5.09 |
| Dec 2026 | 4.71 | 4.29 | 5.16 |
| Jan 2027 | 4.70 | 4.22 | 5.23 |
| Feb 2027 | 4.70 | 4.15 | 5.28 |
| Mar 2027 | 4.66 | 4.07 | 5.32 |
| Apr 2027 | 4.61 | 3.95 | 5.33 |
| May 2027 | 4.57 | 3.85 | 5.33 |
| Jun 2027 | 4.55 | 3.79 | 5.37 |
Survey answers
Based on the forecasts above, and the analysis of forecasts from individual models, I formed the following survey answers:
When you think the RBA will change the cash rate?
| May 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 | Dec 2026 | Feb 2027 | Mar 2027 | May 2027 or beyond | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increase | ✓ | ||||||||
| Hold | |||||||||
| Decrease |
Why do you think this?
I believe we’re all set on the RISE! My forecasting system predicts this decision with a record-high 88 per cent probability, reflecting market expectations in light of the latest developments. All models indicate this decision, with the bond-yield curve models suggesting a more hawkish approach, and univariate models of the cash rate target setting on a moderate increase. If this prediction materialises, this would be the highest level of interest rates since October 2011. And there is one person to blame for this state of affairs :) My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/