cash rate
2026-10-21 0.8821674[1] 0.1269431October 2026
Hi! Have a look at my forecasts prepared to answer the RBA cash rate survey by finder.com.au.
Survey answers
Based on the forecasts above, and the analysis of forecasts from individual models, I formed the following survey answers:
When you think the RBA will change the cash rate?
| Nov 2026 | Dec 2026 | Feb 2027 | Mar 2027 | Apr 2027 | May 2027 | July 2027 | Aug 2027 | Sep 2027 or beyond | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increase | ✓ | ||||||||
| Hold | |||||||||
| Decrease |
Why do you think this?
We seem to be up for another one! My forecasting system indicates an 88 percent probability of a RAISE in the cash rate. Most of my models say so, delivering exceptionally high chances of such an outcome. A rate hike seems in line with increasing inflation and the RBA’s communication for such an occassion. My forecasts are available at: https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/
Cash rate forecasts
The figure below presents the monthly cash rate series starting from January 2010, with the forecasts for another year reported as the forecast mean and the 68% forecasting intervals.
The table below makes the numerical values presented in the figure more accessible.
| monthly | lower | upper | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 4.73 | 4.62 | 4.83 |
| Dec 2026 | 4.81 | 4.64 | 5.00 |
| Jan 2027 | 4.86 | 4.62 | 5.11 |
| Feb 2027 | 4.94 | 4.63 | 5.25 |
| Mar 2027 | 4.94 | 4.56 | 5.34 |
| Apr 2027 | 4.93 | 4.48 | 5.40 |
| May 2027 | 4.94 | 4.42 | 5.48 |
| Jun 2027 | 4.95 | 4.38 | 5.57 |
| Jul 2027 | 4.94 | 4.30 | 5.61 |
| Aug 2027 | 4.91 | 4.21 | 5.64 |
| Sep 2027 | 4.87 | 4.12 | 5.67 |
| Oct 2027 | 4.84 | 4.04 | 5.69 |